Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.439367 1.502284 1.567511 1.640392 1.719802 1.803992 1.900373
2026-02-08 1.353260 1.436329 1.525231 1.628058 1.744496 1.873214 2.027634
2026-02-15 1.289330 1.385093 1.489982 1.614478 1.759699 1.925676 2.132654
2026-02-22 1.248907 1.355299 1.474134 1.618373 1.791103 1.994597 2.257769
2026-03-01 1.194864 1.306010 1.431910 1.587239 1.776919 2.005599 2.309893
2026-03-08 1.153266 1.268555 1.400785 1.566332 1.772132 2.025632 2.372241
2026-03-15 1.120511 1.239649 1.377859 1.553259 1.774998 2.053799 2.445277
2026-03-22 1.108368 1.234310 1.382338 1.573190 1.819292 2.136478 2.596718
2026-03-29 1.101169 1.234236 1.392673 1.600203 1.873265 2.234367 2.777065
2026-04-05 1.079069 1.214979 1.378290 1.594644 1.883523 2.272893 2.873916
2026-04-12 1.060669 1.199508 1.367827 1.593300 1.898759 2.318440 2.984292
2026-04-19 1.030912 1.168994 1.337310 1.564335 1.874704 2.306345 3.003436
2026-04-26 1.010707 1.150376 1.321926 1.555561 1.879109 2.336996 3.095914
2026-05-03 0.990996 1.131761 1.305856 1.545061 1.880295 2.362538 3.181921
2026-05-10 0.971791 1.113215 1.289225 1.533015 1.878439 2.382969 3.260695
2026-05-17 0.960327 1.104127 1.284450 1.536674 1.898897 2.438106 3.404815
2026-05-24 0.936399 1.078455 1.257218 1.508413 1.871465 2.416839 3.409038
2026-05-31 0.917296 1.058588 1.237133 1.489398 1.856788 2.414762 3.448246
2026-06-07 0.901897 1.043166 1.222520 1.477494 1.852052 2.428094 3.517509
2026-06-14 0.898978 1.043838 1.229241 1.495657 1.893016 2.517942 3.745642
2026-06-21 0.898613 1.047760 1.240314 1.520243 1.944785 2.629395 4.034942
2026-06-28 0.887279 1.036936 1.231087 1.515187 1.950159 2.661796 4.161555
2026-07-05 0.877813 1.028371 1.224690 1.513965 1.961374 2.704908 4.317965